Really impressive was not the development of the automobile over the past, say, one hundred and twenty years. Sure, the automobile became safer, more luxurious, faster. But the Benz Patentwagen in which Bertha Benz took the world's first car ride in 1886 contained gasoline, fossil fuel that is. And that's how we still did it until recently. Now, however, changes are flying around our ears. Whether we like it or not, the advent of the electric car is irreversible. What winners and losers does this mobility transition bring?
Text: Werner Budding
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Before we look for the brands that are using this titanic battle to capture additional market share, a word about the genesis of electrifying our mobility. If we conveniently forget the steam car (from about 1870), the automobile came to help mankind get around in 1886. Both at the beginning and in between (see box), attempts were made to make the electric car break through, without serious success. It wasn't until Elon Musk got involved with what was then already Tesla that some support and enthusiasm among consumers and governments slowly emerged. But in fact, it was dieselgate that made electrification an irreversible process. The world's largest automaker, Volkswagen, after reluctantly admitting to being quite wrong, recognized that it was time for emission-free mobility. Incidentally, the management teams of Renault and Nissan had been walking around with that thought for a while at the time. Meanwhile
we have entered the third decade of the 21st century, and within new car sales in the Netherlands, the EV (Electric Vehicle) has just under 20 percent market share. In fact, quite a few countries have already announced a future ban on the sale of new cars with fossil fuel engines, including the Netherlands by 2030. And so it is fair to say that eventually we will all be going electric.
That has repercussions quite so, in the industry. Did many think Tesla would not make it, meanwhile the American brand sells half a million EVs annually. The Volkswagen group is spending 150 billion euros in development money over the next five years, about half of which will go into the development of new electric cars and associated software. Knowing that the transition from fossil to electric involves such sums makes it immediately clear that the less capital-rich brands must band together. Fiat Chrysler Automobiles and PSA (Peugeot and Citroën) have entered into a marriage that has a somewhat pragmatic background. Under the bombastic name of Stellantis are fourteen brands, including Fiat, Peugeot, Citroën, Alfa Romeo, Chrysler, Jeep, Opel and Maserati. Brands that are challenging to difficult. If they clump together, opportunities arise within technology sharing, leading to cost efficiencies. Nevertheless, it seems logical that of those fourteen brands, some will die. Apart from the extremely high costs involved in developing new electric powertrains, there is a major opponent waiting. Or rather, one that is now scratching its paws at the door.
The Chinese, they are really coming! Now with the barely interesting models of the brands MG, Aiways and Seres, selling compact SUVs of questionable quality, without innovative technologies. But already within one year really interesting, good electric cars are coming this way from China.
With the EQS, Mercedes is the first manufacturer to launch an electric sedan in the high class. This happens almost at the same time that other prestige brands such as Bentley and Rolls-Royce announce that they will switch completely to building electric cars before the end of this decade. It is precisely with elite brands like these, where comfort is carried to the highest degree, that the electric powertrain provides yet more convenience.
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Developments in China are going fast, helped in part by a dictatorial regime that invariably has a stab at the car brand in question. In other words, a government that supports the auto industry and does not slow it down, as we are used to in Europe. Several Chinese brands, by delivering cars of inferior quality in the past, have damaged confidence in European consumers. New brands NIO, Polestar, BYD, Lynk & Co and Byton are on a very different path. Based on advanced software, car-sharing systems, groundbreaking technology to drive autonomously and a generous range, they will quickly make those lesser Chinese EVs forget about them. But which well-known brands will suffer from these newcomers? Presumably the generalists, brands like Opel, Ford, Renault, Peugeot, Toyota and Honda. Mostly- still- it looks like the Koreans will be combative. Both Kia and Hyundai, belonging to one group, are currently launching the EV6 and the IONIQ 5, respectively. Both models feature 800V charging technology on board. That means they charge twice as fast as the current generation of EVs. Only Porsche and Audi provide this technology, on the Taycan and the e-tron GT.
Can Porsche and Audi compete with Tesla? When it comes to brand value, image, build quality, driving character and equipment, yes. When it comes to software techniques, driving performance, autonomy and range, Tesla rules. In response to the Taycan and the e-tron GT, Tesla came out with an update for the Model S. As if Elon was ready with the Model S 2.0, so quickly followed the response from the American automaker. By the way, you have to seriously focus on the Tesla's exterior to see the changes. Under the skin, however, there is much more going on. If you opt for a Model S Plaid+, there is a powertrain hanging inside the EV of 1100 horsepower strong. Yes, read correctly: 1100 horsepower! With that, the Tesla sprints to 100 km/h in 2.1 seconds and reaches a top of 320 km/h. If you are not too enthusiastic with the right pedal, you can save 840 kilometers on a full battery. Bam, and then it got quiet in Germany.
Then again, the so-called European premiums are premium brands for a reason. Does a Tesla have status? Maybe for some, but a Mercedes, BMW or Audi are on the wish list of many. And now let those brands come out with new EVs at a rapid pace. The battle is intensifying, and is certainly not played out. BMW as a technology pioneer kicked off years ago with the bold i3, then went silent for a while. Now the i4 and iX are already following this year, and last year the iX3 was launched. BMW believes in platforms on which various types of powertrains can fit. So you can get the X3 as a diesel, gasoline, plug-in hybrid and with an electric powertrain (iX3). Just like the i4, which can also go through life as a 420d, 430i or M4. The iX, on the other hand, is definitely revolutionary, in terms of technology, driving range (+600 km) and appearance. The innovations in the Audi Q4 e-tron are less impressive, but then again, that comes at a price of less than half a ton. This midsize electric SUV is based on the Volkswagen ID.4/ID.3. The Seat Born and the Skoda Enyaq also share this technology. And exactly that is what automakers should do: share new technology. The development costs of electric powertrains and EV platforms are frighteningly high and therefore can only be recouped if they receive mass deployment. Mass is takings. Hence, the huge Volkswagen concern also shares the EV platform with third parties. For example, Ford will soon come out with a mid-size electric car based on Volkswagen technology.
Over 120 years ago, the automobile rapidly took over the streets of the Western world. Also in America. Who does not know the photo of New York on Easter Sunday 1900, where horses with wagons compete for spots on the streets of the Big Apple? A few years later, a picture also taken on Fifth Avenue in New York, and the street scene is completely filled with cars. It was that fast. Most of the American carts in the early days of the automobile were equipped with an electric powertrain. Which, according to lore, didn't quite fit the vision of the Texas oil industry. The electric car soon lost the battle, while the EV's range at the time was already several dozen miles, on one full battery pack. After during the 1973 oil crisis several automakers briefly, and with little persistence, threw themselves into developing the electric car, General Motors suddenly seemed serious in the early 1990s. In 1990, the auto conglomerate launched the EV1 at the Los Angeles Motor Show: the first mass-produced post-war electric car. General Motors built 1,117 units, which the brand leased for $299. Actor Danny DeVito, among others, drove an EV1. When, after the lease term expired, GM wanted the cars back, there was a commotion. Most of the riders were quite satisfied and wanted to extend the lease term. Some even made the automobile company an offer to take over the electric two-seaters. No, GM said firmly. All EV1s came back to GM and all but a few dozen were destroyed. The cars that escaped the shredder were given such treatment that they would never be able to drive again. To all but one, it seems; it is in the Smithsonian Institution, in Washington DC. Filmmaker Francis Ford Coppola has a restored EV1 in his car collection. The reason behind the wholesale disabling of the revolutionary electric car can be guessed: the oil industry had little use for mobility that did not require fossil fuels. And the power of the oil barons was such that even the huge General Motors permanently took the innovative EV1 off the streets.
The world's oldest carmaker, Mercedes-Benz, has been a bit lacking when it comes to EV development. Aside from some small-scale projects, the EQC is the first truly serious electric Mercedes, which incidentally somewhat disappoints with its driving range. The just launched EQA, based on the Mercedes GLA, impresses more. But the car that should excite higher-end buyers with a CEO position is the approaching EQS. If you have an aversion to digital screens, pass by the EQS. Digitalization splashes out of this electric sedan on all sides, and this is especially evident in the huge 1.41-meter-wide display screen, which takes up almost the entire dashboard. Thanks in part to a revolutionarily low streamline (0.20 cW value), the EQS achieves about 700 kilometers on a full battery, according to the factory. With the EQS, Mercedes is the first manufacturer to launch an electric sedan in the high class. This happens almost at the same time that other prestige brands such as Bentley and Rolls-Royce announce that they will switch completely to building electric cars before the end of this decade. It is precisely with elite brands like these, where comfort is carried through to the highest degree, that the electric powertrain provides yet
convenience. After all, an electric motor always delivers power, and a lot of it, if desired. What's more, it does so quietly.
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That the transition is going fast is evident from Volvo's statement: 'There is no long-term future for combustion engine cars.' Audi also recently announced that it will immediately stop developing new combustion engines; only existing engines will continue to be kept up to date by the Germans. And what about brands like Porsche, Ferrari and Lamborghini? Simple, they too must embrace the electric powertrain. As early as 2028, 85 percent of all new Porsches will be EVs. Only the hyper-models like the 911 GT3 RS and the GT2 will continue to roll off the assembly line with an engine in which fuel is detonated. Namely, synthetic fuel. Its emissions are roughly equivalent to those of an all-electric car. So maybe synthetic fuel is the salvation for everyone who hates electric cars? No, the transition from fossil to electric has begun, and has no turning back. But part of the one billion or so cars on the road around the world that have a tank of gasoline or diesel attached to them are going to use this fuel made up of hydrogen and CO2 that does not involve fossil resources. Because while that electric car may be a blessing for our environment, replacing more than a billion cars at a breakneck pace is by no means a blessing for the environment.
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